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An imperative to monitor Earth's energy imbalance

Nature Climate Change volume 6, pages 138–144 (2016)Cite this article

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Abstract

The current Earth's energy imbalance (EEI) is mostly caused by human activity, and is driving global warming. The absolute value of EEI represents the most fundamental metric defining the status of global climate change, and will be more useful than using global surface temperature. EEI can best be estimated from changes in ocean heat content, complemented by radiation measurements from space. Sustained observations from the Argo array of autonomous profiling floats and further development of the ocean observing system to sample the deep ocean, marginal seas and sea ice regions are crucial to refining future estimates of EEI. Combining multiple measurements in an optimal way holds considerable promise for estimating EEI and thus assessing the status of global climate change, improving climate syntheses and models, and testing the effectiveness of mitigation actions. Progress can be achieved with a concerted international effort.

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Figure 1: Effective radiative forcing since 1750.
Figure 2: Schematic representations of the flow and storage of energy in the Earth's climate system and related consequences.
Figure 3: Characterization of the relationships between changes in global surface temperature, global OHC and Earth system energy content on decadal timescales.
Figure 4: Schematic representation of Argo observing system sampling and related ocean heat content estimates.

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Acknowledgements

Two meetings of this international working group have been supported by the International Space Science Institute (ISSI), Bern, Switzerland.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Mediterranean Institute of Oceanography, Université de Toulon, Aix-Marseille Université, CNRS, IRD, MIO UM 110, Toulon, 83041, France

    K. von Schuckmann

  2. Mercator Océan, 10 Rue Hermés, 31520, Ramonville St Agne, France

    K. von Schuckmann

  3. Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, Devon, UK

    M. D. Palmer

  4. National Center for Atmospheric Research, 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, 80305, Colorado, USA

    K. E. Trenberth

  5. Laboratoire d'Etudes en Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiales/Centre national d'études spatiales, 18 avenue Edouard BELIN, Toulouse CEDEX 9, 31401, France

    A. Cazenave & B. Meyssignac

  6. International Space Science Institute, Hallerstrasse 6, Bern, 3012, Switzerland

    A. Cazenave & N. Champollion

  7. University of South Florida, College of Marine Science, 140 7th Avenue South, St Petersburg, 33701, Florida, USA

    D. Chambers

  8. Earth Institute, Columbia University, 475 Riverside Drive, New York, 10115, New York, USA

    J. Hansen

  9. National Oceanography Centre, Waterfront Campus, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK

    S. A. Josey

  10. NASA Langley Research Center, Mail Stop 420, Hampton, 23681-2199, Virginia, USA

    N. Loeb

  11. European Space Agency, Via Galileo Galilei, Casella Postale 64, Frascati (RM), 00044, Italy

    P.-P. Mathieu

  12. ETH, Universitätstrasse 16, Zürich, 8092, Switzerland

    M. Wild

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Contributions

K.v.S. led the formulation of the paper and produced Figs 2 and 4. M.P. produced Fig. 3. The main drafts of the paper were compiled by K.v.S., M.P. and K.T. All authors contributed to discussions, writing and figure development.

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Correspondence to K. von Schuckmann.

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von Schuckmann, K., Palmer, M., Trenberth, K. et al. An imperative to monitor Earth's energy imbalance. Nature Clim Change 6, 138–144 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2876

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